A Misnomer?
Where the word Sabermetrics comes from
A Misnomer?
I think we’ve got an answer to the age old question of who the originator of “sabermetrics” is.
This comes from Rich Lederer’s excellent summary of the 1980 Bill James Baseball Abstract:
But is this a misnomer?
Years ago — maybe over two decades ago — I joined a Yahoo group dedicated to researching the 1919 World Series and the famous Chicago White Sox scandal. I was young and naive, and thought that I’d use my nascent knowledge of advanced statistical analysis (thanks largely to Baseball Primer) to assist in the effort.
I was laughed out of the group.
My experience is that most researchers tied with the Society for American Baseball Research prefer to use traditional methods of statistical analysis, rather than looking at the history of the sport through new eyes.
This isn’t true for everyone, of course. But it’s more consistently true than you might think.
I read a book around 15 years ago called Baseball’s Greatest Season: 1924. It’s pretty well written, though the narrative really could use a bit of work. And I can assure you that there’s not even a hint of sabermetrics in that book. Hitters are largely described by their batting average, and pitchers are described by ERA and their won-loss record.
The Betrayal is generally portrayed as one of the must-read books about the 1919 World Series. It came out only about a decade ago. And, yet, there’s no deep statistical analysis in this book — no demonstration that the Reds couldn’t have beaten those White Sox fair and square. Everything is described in terms of batting average, ERA, and wins and losses — as if it were written in 1920.
So should we really call it sabermetrics when so many associated with SABR don’t use it?
My recollection is that the statistical analysis people wanted to give a shout-out to SABR., and may have felt that incorporating its name into their activity would give it more credibility. As James said in (I think) the first professionally published BA, there just wasn't an inclusive name for sports statistical analysis, especially since "sports statistics" connotes "Roger Maris hit 61 home runs in 1961" and the like.
I think James wanted it to be the way SABR as a whole viewed the game, but most of the folks associated that I've met are nostalgists.
I think that's probably a good thing. A combination of historical perspective and preservation of the feel of the various baseball eras combined with modern statistical analysis is important.
Baseball has always been more about stories than stats, and even though we use stats to compare players and teams and even decades, if that's all we looked at, it would be a very dry game indeed.
All you need to do is watch a modern national broadcast to know what an over-reliance on statical analysis would mean for the game.