Ballpark Effects In Strat's 1982 Set
Somebody on the Strat-O-Matic Delphi forum pointed this out the other day. And it’s been driving me nuts ever since.
There’s something odd going on with the Super Advanced version of 1982 that Strat-O-Matic recently came out with.
There are a few complaints about players with odd bunting ratings, and there are some hints that there might be too many “clutch hitting” results in the super advanced game. It’s hard to prove those right or wrong either way.
However, there is absolutely something going on with the park effects.
Here are the ballpark effects for Baltimore in 1982, the first team listed on the chart:
It’s hard to say out of context whether these are “right” or “wrong.” However, compare them to the 1980 Baltimore park effects:
This is kind of an extreme change, right? Lefties were suddenly better able to hit home runs at Memorial Stadium in 1982, and righties simply couldn’t hit anything?
Now look at the 1984 Baltimore park effects:
Those look closer to the 1980 totals than 1982. Sure, there is still a massive drop for home runs from right handed batters. Still, things aren’t completely flipped around the way they are for 1982.
And it’s not just Baltimore.
Houston was probably the most extreme anti-home run ballpark in the early 1980s. Look at the rating it got in 1982:
That’s going to be pretty devastating for power hitters, sure. But this is what it looked like in 1980:
And here’s what it looks like in 1984:
The fluctuation in the singles totals for 1980 is really questionable, in my opinion. But I’m also baffled as to why the home run ratings in 1982 were more favorable than in the other two years.
It’s hard to say for sure what is happening here, of course. These ratings aren’t designed to be used in a vacuum. They relate directly to the results on player cards, and there’s a chance that the cards might be calibrated in a way that produces accurate results in a season replay.
But there’s also a chance that the results might just be off.
You don’t have to take my word for it, by the way. You can find all the ballpark and weather effect charts for free here.
Those park effects appear to correlate with the data. Unfortunately, there is a lot of statistical noise that can cause these types of fluctuations (particularly when you further limit the sample sizes to left-handed and right-handed batters). Of course you can't rule out other things at play, particularly the weather, as well as alterations to the park or even composition of the team and pitching staff.
It does make me wonder if this is the right way to approach things. It appears that Strat uses single year park factors. Should they be using 3-year park factors in order to stabilize the data? I reckon that might be a better approach.
That said, I do appreciate the flavor that park effects bring to the game (I'm a Replay guy).
Seamheads is the place to go for detailed park breakdowns:
https://www.seamheads.com/ballparks/ballpark.php?parkID=BAL11&tab=pf1
As you can see, the data is a lot less "crazy" when applying 3-year park factors:
https://www.seamheads.com/ballparks/ballpark.php?parkID=BAL11&tab=pf3