Bill James on Rebuilding
A note on the 1977 New York Mets
Bill James on Rebuilding
As I continue to go through this summary of the 1978 Bill James Baseball Abstract, I came across this interesting tidbit:
This is a pretty interesting insight, and I have to say that I agree with James in principal. However, in the specific case of the 1977 Mets, I’m not sure how much I agree.
The Mets did have a good young first baseman on the team. His name was Dave Kingman. Kingman was 28 years old in 1977, and had one of those frustrating seasons, one in which he bounced between 4 teams, managed to hit 26 home runs, but didn’t do much else offensively.
Anyway, the Mets started out the season with 32-year-old Ed Kranepool at first and Kingman in the outfield. Eventually, though, they gave Dave a bit of time at first:
Without doing a really deep dive into the 1977 Mets, my assumption here is that Kingman was kind of a liability at first base — and, of course, he wasn’t getting on base.
27-year-old John Milner wound up being the first baseman for the Mets for most of 1977. Milner, of course, was 27 years old, which means he was young. He also didn’t hit very well:
Then again, an astute observer will note that Milner actually was a better overall player in 1977 than Willie Montañez was in 1978:
I’d argue that the Mets were trying their hardest to find a good hitter to fill up that 1st base spot. It’s not ridiculous for them to think that Montañez would possibly be the answer; after all, he had put up an OPS+ of over 100 for most of the decade leading up to that point in time (and, yeah, I know they didn’t use OPS+ back then — it’s an easier shorthand way of talking about offensive productivity without digging too deeply into batting average, slugging percentage, and on base percentage). It’s not that Montañez was an awful signing.
The other question is whether the Mets had anybody better.
Ed Kurpiel was 23 years old and was the starting first baseman at AAA Tidewater:
It’s pretty clear that Ed wasn’t going to be the answer. He never demonstrated the ability to hit at the AAA level, let alone the major league level.
Marshall Brant was 19 years old in 1977, and was playing at AA Jackson:
Marshall did have cups of coffee in 1980 and 1983, but never showed any signs of belonging at the major league level. He was also pretty ineffective playing in Japan in 1984 and 1985, which I’d argue gives you an example of the sort of player he was. My guess is that the Mets could tell in spring training that this guy was probably never going to make it.
And, well, that’s about it. The Mets had a gaping hole at first base in their entire organization in 1977:
So there’s your Montañez deal. Keith Shermeyer sure wasn’t going to do much at first base. Curtis Fisher was out of organized baseball by the end of 1978. Charlie Warren hit well in Lynchburg in 1978, but fell apart as a player in 1979 — and hitting .281 in A league ball at age 24 doesn’t convince me that he was ready to move up. And, in the end, Herbert Kitzer never played organized ball after his 22 year old season in Wausau.
This is important, by the way. It helps explain why the Mets wound up going for Keith Hernandez in 1983 instead of messing around with a bunch of minor leaguers. Davey Johnson and Frank Cashen were well known for taking a chance on their young players — but they decided to go with experience at first base instead of messing around too much.
Of course, when Hernandez finally left, the Mets did give a lot of playing time to home grown Dave Magadan at first base — though that only lasted a few seasons. The Mets famously paid through the nose for 36-year-old Eddie Murray in 1992 as the team started sliding downwards.
It’s easy to criticize deals for “established” players the way that James did here. However, if you jump in and look at the organization OOTP style, you’ll discover that you can’t create an effective offensive player out of thin air.
The “right answer” here was probably to stick with Dave Kingman and ignore his batting average. I suppose hindsight is 20/20. However — if a 32-year-old Kingman were still with the Mets at the end of 1982, would the Mets have ever gone for Hernandez?
Complacency will be the death of you.
I don't think Bill was speaking out against signing established players (even on a rebuilder). I think we was speaking out about signing established first basemen, and I like his point. Invariably in a rebuild, if it's any good, you will end up with two good players occupying the same position. In an era before the Mets had access to a DH, it was therefore invaluable to keep the first base position open, because it was a solid bet that they were going to have to switch somebody's position.
This can still be seen in modern baseball. It's not just a 1977 thing. This is why the bar for hitting at first base is so high, because when hitters are so good that they mandate a position, even if their position is occupied already (or they stink at it), they will often be moved to first base. This is a lot harder to do with an established player at first base. I think what Bill was saying is that a good first baseman is not a wise investment, because you can probably find a good first baseman somewhere in your own organisation, in the form of a converted third baseman or OF or whatever.
It's the same thing that's seen in minor league RPs. Teams don't want minor league RPs. They want minor league starters, that they can convert into relievers should they so choose. No different with first basemen. There's no need to bring in a good one. Most organisations can make their own good ones. Great ones (of course) are a different story.
I'm devoid of context on the 1977 Mets. Maybe they had no good minor league first basemen, but did they have any good minor league hitters in general? Any of them could've played first base, with no multiple year commitment required. Perhaps not, and in that case you would be correct in this specific circumstance, but in general I like Bill's strategy, which I read as avoid multiple year commitments to good first basemen, but of course take a look at the great ones. Especially true in a rebuild, where every young man you draft is a potential major league 1B, should be blow out his knee or shoulder or something.