My Managerial Mistake

How I let the 1949 Philadelphia Athletics Down

My Managerial Mistake

Usually I err on the other side.

I usually leave the starting pitcher in too long. I’m not a huge fan of relief pitching. I guess I’m a romantic at heart. I love the idea of the starter staying in there, fighting until the very end, trying to get those final outs himself.

But I decided to be a little bit too conservative this time around.

The Athletics were beating the Tigers 4-2. This was an important game for Philadelphia, by the way. The Athletics came in to it only 3 1/2 games behind the league leading Red Sox.

I’m not convinced that there’s a chance that the Athletics will catch up to Boston and Cleveland. However, you really never know with baseball. A slip by one or both of those teams and a small winning streak by the Athletics would change everything.

But it didn’t happen today.

This was the situation:

It looks innocent enough, right? Alex Kellner was on the mound, complete with his 3.16 ERA and his 6-4 record. He had thrown 116 pitches by this point. Sure, he wasn’t going to pitch a complete game — but he still had his stuff, right?

But what you don’t see is the walk he was about to give up.

Kellner had now walked two in a row, and was throwing nothing but balls. I simply had to take him out.

It made no sense, in retrospect. The bullpen situation looked like this:

I guess you would go with Harris, right? After that it’s McCahan and Fowler, and then you pray for rain.

After the fact, I even checked the Win Expectancy Finder to get an idea of the odds. They were still in Philadelphia’s favor, though only slightly:

I’d characterize the Detroit offense as average, and feel that this estimation is probably right on. It’s a high leverage situation, no doubt, but it’s not clear that the visiting team will jump out ahead.

But I decided to make a move. I went with Harris.

And this happened:

Then came this:

That was followed by this:

6 runs scored for the Tigers in this inning. That’s right. SIX.

The Athletics tried to come back, but, well, why bother?

And that’s how this one ended up.

And so here I am, asking in all sincerity what you would have done.

Do you ignore the pitch count and stick with Kellner?