The Shoo-Ins

The Hall of Fame candidacy of Dave Parker, Jim Rice, and Steve Garvey

The Shoo-Ins

Next up in our review of The 1980 Baseball Abstract is this observation:

Was James a little bit too optimistic?

Let’s start with Dave Parker.

Parker’s career after the 1979 season looked like this:

Parker was 29 years old going into 1980. he had two batting titles under his name, had hit .300 five years straight in a relatively pitching friendly era, had established a tendency to hit for power, had tremendous OPS+ numbers, was on two All Star teams, had an MVP award, finished in the MVP running 5 years straight, and had three straight Gold Glove awards.

And Parker’s defense was good. His throwing ability was on display during the 1979 All Star Game, where he collected two outfield assists against the best players the American League had to offer.

I’ve written about Parker before. His fielding ability decreased as his career went on, though I think this was at least in part impacted by base runners deciding not to run on his good arm. Reputation is difficult to measure statistically, but it is indeed a thing, especially when it comes to outfield assists.

The interesting thing, though, is that Parker’s offense declined once he hit what we usually think of as peak seasons:

Now, don’t get me wrong. Parker was never a bad hitter. But his offensive production clearly tapered off starting in 1980. With the exception of a good showing in Cincinnati in 1985, Parker looked like an average hitter in every season following James’ praise.

The irony, of course, is that Parker almost missed the 1986 season entirely. He was implicated in the famous cocaine scandal of 1985. As loathe as I am to quote Wikipedia, it actually contains the most succinct description of how this impacted his Hall of Fame chances:

The Veterans Committee finally came to the record, and we’ll see Parker inducted in July 2025.

Frankly, though, I’m not sure Parker’s career has the longevity you’d expect from a Hall of Fame candidate. He was good up through 1979, but things really fell apart after then — and it’s not only because of his fielding.

Next comes Jim Rice, who we’ve also talked about recently. Here’s what Rice looked like after the 1979 season:

Rice’s stats aren’t quite as dominant as Parker’s were, though an MVP award and three straight All Star Game appearances certainly doesn’t hurt things. His 1975-1979 run sure looks like a Hall of Fame resume to me.

But now we have to look at his entire career:

You don’t see the same violent drop in Rice that you do in Parker. Still, aside from 1983 and 1986, Rice struggled a bit offensively, never quite looking like the superstar he was in the 1970s.

Most of us who remember the glory days of Baseball Think Factory think “double play” as soon as the name Jim Rice comes up. Rice always had a tendency to ground into double plays, and it showed with a vengence during what should have been his peak seasons. I’m not sure how many Red Sox rallies he killed — but I certainly do know I’d throw him a lot of sinkers and sliders if there was a runner on first base.

Here’s Wikipedia’s take on Rice’s candidacy:

I hate to put it this way, but Rice really is one of those “slippery slope” Hall of Fame candidates. If Dawson and Perez made it, the argument goes, then you’ve got to let Rice in as well. Though I tend to be a “big Hall” guy, I’m honestly not all that impressed by a guy whose best years came before age 27.

Finally, let’s take a quick look at Steve Garvey, another late 1970s superstar who fell apart. Here he is after the 1979 season:

Even in his best seasons, Garvey is the sort of player that modern statistics despise. Garvey was your classic 1970s contact hitter, never walking much and never striking out all that much, putting the bat on the ball and hitting for relatively high average. he did have some power, though Dodger Stadium likely took a lot of that away.

But he was still good. You don’t get to the All Star Game 6 years in a row without being good.

And here’s the rest of his career:

I’m sure that Cubs fans wish Garvey wasn’t with San Diego in 1984, and for obvious reasons. Still, it’s Garvey’s lack of on base percentage that really hurt him for the rest of his career — and, sadly, that’s something you’ll never be able to get from in our modern statistical age.

Like Rice, Garvey’s shortcoming seems to be how incompatible his game is with modern baseball sensibilities:

I should note as well that all three of these players played “lesser” defensive positions — two corner outfielders and one first baseman. There is a chance that the negative adjustment WAR makes for players who play at those positions might have hurt their Hall of Fame candidacies.