"No — the problem is that he’s got as good a chance of hitting 70 home runs in your replay as he does of hitting 52."
Yes! This is a key point that a lot of people miss and I sometimes have a hard time explaining it to people. It also leads to what I think is a bigger problem: it messes up the leaderboards. (This part is a little harder to grasp.)
These were the top 5 home run hitters in the American League in 2023:
1. Shohei Ohtani: 44
2. Adolis Garcia: 39
3. Luis Robert: 38
4. Aaron Judge: 37
5. Rafael Devers: 33
If you replay the 2023 season in Strat, I will bet serious money that the #5 guy on your HR leaderboard will hit MORE than 33 homers. This is because there's a good chance that the top 4 guys will all hit 34 or more. And there's about a 45% chance that Devers will reach that level. And then there's a BUNCH of guys with 28+ homers who all have a decent chance of hitting 34 homers if the dice fall the right way for them. All that adds up to the likelyhood that your leaderboard will be inflated compared to the real-life stats.
Any sim that just plugs in the historical numbers and rolls dice will have this problem for homers, doubles, hits, batting average, etc. That's why Baseball Mogul doesn't do this. To use your term, it "nerfs" outliers to some degree so that the leaderboard is realistic, even though the randomness of the game will put different players on that leaderboard. The good news is that you don't have to "nerf" the stats very much to make the game more realistic in this way.
I would let it roll and whatever you get, you get. It might lessen the enjoyment if he's way off, but then why are we doing the replay - why not just read the daily papers or Sporting News from 61?
And I agree with Steve - a bigger name - Mantle, or in another year Mays or Aaron - would bother me more.
I had the opposite problem. When I replayed 1961, five or six years ago, using DMB, Maris hit exactly sixty-one, but "The Mick" only hit forty. But that is the way the ball bounces.
If Maris had had fifty-eight on September first, for example, I probably wouldn't have pitched to him in the games I was managing, or I would have pitched around him. I certainly wouldn't have pitched to him in close games or games important to the team I was managing. Other than that, que sera sera, whatever will be, will be.
I'm pretty sure that is the way I would handle Ralph Kiner, in your 1949 replay, for example, who looks like he is on the way to immortality. Of course, in his case, by batting leadoff, he is probably going to significantly exceed his actual plate appearances. But pitching around him might keep his at bats and home runs closer to actual.
But do such things bother me? No!! Not really. I'm more disappointed when it goes the other way, e.g. Mantle in my '61.
"No — the problem is that he’s got as good a chance of hitting 70 home runs in your replay as he does of hitting 52."
Yes! This is a key point that a lot of people miss and I sometimes have a hard time explaining it to people. It also leads to what I think is a bigger problem: it messes up the leaderboards. (This part is a little harder to grasp.)
These were the top 5 home run hitters in the American League in 2023:
1. Shohei Ohtani: 44
2. Adolis Garcia: 39
3. Luis Robert: 38
4. Aaron Judge: 37
5. Rafael Devers: 33
If you replay the 2023 season in Strat, I will bet serious money that the #5 guy on your HR leaderboard will hit MORE than 33 homers. This is because there's a good chance that the top 4 guys will all hit 34 or more. And there's about a 45% chance that Devers will reach that level. And then there's a BUNCH of guys with 28+ homers who all have a decent chance of hitting 34 homers if the dice fall the right way for them. All that adds up to the likelyhood that your leaderboard will be inflated compared to the real-life stats.
Any sim that just plugs in the historical numbers and rolls dice will have this problem for homers, doubles, hits, batting average, etc. That's why Baseball Mogul doesn't do this. To use your term, it "nerfs" outliers to some degree so that the leaderboard is realistic, even though the randomness of the game will put different players on that leaderboard. The good news is that you don't have to "nerf" the stats very much to make the game more realistic in this way.
I would let it roll and whatever you get, you get. It might lessen the enjoyment if he's way off, but then why are we doing the replay - why not just read the daily papers or Sporting News from 61?
And I agree with Steve - a bigger name - Mantle, or in another year Mays or Aaron - would bother me more.
I had the opposite problem. When I replayed 1961, five or six years ago, using DMB, Maris hit exactly sixty-one, but "The Mick" only hit forty. But that is the way the ball bounces.
If Maris had had fifty-eight on September first, for example, I probably wouldn't have pitched to him in the games I was managing, or I would have pitched around him. I certainly wouldn't have pitched to him in close games or games important to the team I was managing. Other than that, que sera sera, whatever will be, will be.
I'm pretty sure that is the way I would handle Ralph Kiner, in your 1949 replay, for example, who looks like he is on the way to immortality. Of course, in his case, by batting leadoff, he is probably going to significantly exceed his actual plate appearances. But pitching around him might keep his at bats and home runs closer to actual.
But do such things bother me? No!! Not really. I'm more disappointed when it goes the other way, e.g. Mantle in my '61.