I would be curious to look at Herr's 1985 season where he had 110 RBI with only 8 home runs. I'm sure having Vince Coleman and Willie McGee batting in front of him helped. :-) But from a WAR perspective (5.6), it was the best season of his career.
I 100 percent agree with you with the Herr factor and mostly agree with you on Vuckovich factor. Only thing is just like hitters sometimes would gives themselves up to hit behind the runner or put a ball in play, pitchers do not always pitch the same when nobody is on and when runners are on base. Especially back when going the distance was always in play.
A good example of this was the one Geoff wrote about with Catfish Hunter in issue 5 of the Sports Games Journal.
This might be a little to nuance though for these games, but if they do have at least a small way to nudge things I am OK with that. But also see the case for let the chips fall as well
Absolutely right. In fact, if you read "Pitching in a Pinch" by Mathewson, you'll see him talk about this strategy in plain language. The idea is that you want to ease up on the weaker hitters in the lineup and only use your good stuff when it really matters.
I'm not sure that there's an easy way to incorporate that into a baseball sim, though I do know people have tried. And I agree with you - if the adjustments end up nudging things a little bit in this direction or that direction, it's probably okay. And that includes Strat's "clutch" system that only comes up if you hit the right numbers on the card.
> The more you try to adjust for statistical noise, the more likely it is that you’ll miss the actual signal behind the noise
Howard used to make this point in the Letters section although not quite in this way. His overall point was that if you base a card on smaller sample sizes, the less likely you will be accurate on an aggregate basis
A lot of my feelings on baseball were heavily influenced by Howard's insightful comments in the old APBA Journal. There are times where I think he did more for the community than Seitz.
Yes, especially for someone without a mathematical background*, Howard put a lot of thought and math into both his articles and into his Letters responses. LTH put very little effort into making the AJ into a top-notch publication but Howard quit his job as a teacher to do it right. Once Dick died I think Howard saw the writing on the wall and sold Eric a pig in a poke**. While Fritz was running APBA well under Dick, he just didn't have Dick's touch and the company soon went into a tailspin that I would argue it hasn't ever recovered from.
*Paul Vickers was a member of CMBA so Howard could always run things past him
Eric actually comments here from time to time - usually to tell me that I'm wrong, haha.
It's interesting when you read through the APBA Journal from beginning to end. You can see a massive drop in quality under Tom, particularly starting around late 1981. The 1982 issues are almost devoid of anything interesting.
When Howard came along to help in early 1984, there was a significant difference in quality. And it's amazing that he was able to put so much effort into making it work once he rebooted the publication in late 1986.
The issues from 1987 to the end of 1992 are among the best sports analysis I've ever seen. I need to get back to reading deeply and writing about those issues, actually. More people need to know about this stuff.
> Eric ... usually to tell me that I'm wrong, haha.
It's funny you mention that; when Eric first took over in 1993, I immediately noticed that he would argue with his own writers in the middle of their own articles! I don't recall Howard ever using an editor's note in this manner but Eric would do it all the time; I wonder if this is why Bob Henry eventually stopped contributing...
> The issues from 1987 to the end of 1992 are among the best sports analysis I've ever seen
Yes, looking back at it I am amazing how much of my worldview was shaped by Howard's AJ. He could have worked as an author or editor for an actual commercial publication; that's how good he was. Howard was only 53 when he sold the AJ to Eric but since he and Sally never had children perhaps they just lived on her salary as a nurse and his teaching pension until he passed @75. It's your blog but I think a thorough lookback at Howard's AJ would be illuminating
I would be curious to look at Herr's 1985 season where he had 110 RBI with only 8 home runs. I'm sure having Vince Coleman and Willie McGee batting in front of him helped. :-) But from a WAR perspective (5.6), it was the best season of his career.
I 100 percent agree with you with the Herr factor and mostly agree with you on Vuckovich factor. Only thing is just like hitters sometimes would gives themselves up to hit behind the runner or put a ball in play, pitchers do not always pitch the same when nobody is on and when runners are on base. Especially back when going the distance was always in play.
A good example of this was the one Geoff wrote about with Catfish Hunter in issue 5 of the Sports Games Journal.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/Sportsgamesjournal/
This might be a little to nuance though for these games, but if they do have at least a small way to nudge things I am OK with that. But also see the case for let the chips fall as well
Absolutely right. In fact, if you read "Pitching in a Pinch" by Mathewson, you'll see him talk about this strategy in plain language. The idea is that you want to ease up on the weaker hitters in the lineup and only use your good stuff when it really matters.
I'm not sure that there's an easy way to incorporate that into a baseball sim, though I do know people have tried. And I agree with you - if the adjustments end up nudging things a little bit in this direction or that direction, it's probably okay. And that includes Strat's "clutch" system that only comes up if you hit the right numbers on the card.
> The more you try to adjust for statistical noise, the more likely it is that you’ll miss the actual signal behind the noise
Howard used to make this point in the Letters section although not quite in this way. His overall point was that if you base a card on smaller sample sizes, the less likely you will be accurate on an aggregate basis
Haha, you've found my secret weapon!
A lot of my feelings on baseball were heavily influenced by Howard's insightful comments in the old APBA Journal. There are times where I think he did more for the community than Seitz.
Yes, especially for someone without a mathematical background*, Howard put a lot of thought and math into both his articles and into his Letters responses. LTH put very little effort into making the AJ into a top-notch publication but Howard quit his job as a teacher to do it right. Once Dick died I think Howard saw the writing on the wall and sold Eric a pig in a poke**. While Fritz was running APBA well under Dick, he just didn't have Dick's touch and the company soon went into a tailspin that I would argue it hasn't ever recovered from.
*Paul Vickers was a member of CMBA so Howard could always run things past him
**sorry, Eric
Eric actually comments here from time to time - usually to tell me that I'm wrong, haha.
It's interesting when you read through the APBA Journal from beginning to end. You can see a massive drop in quality under Tom, particularly starting around late 1981. The 1982 issues are almost devoid of anything interesting.
When Howard came along to help in early 1984, there was a significant difference in quality. And it's amazing that he was able to put so much effort into making it work once he rebooted the publication in late 1986.
The issues from 1987 to the end of 1992 are among the best sports analysis I've ever seen. I need to get back to reading deeply and writing about those issues, actually. More people need to know about this stuff.
> Eric ... usually to tell me that I'm wrong, haha.
It's funny you mention that; when Eric first took over in 1993, I immediately noticed that he would argue with his own writers in the middle of their own articles! I don't recall Howard ever using an editor's note in this manner but Eric would do it all the time; I wonder if this is why Bob Henry eventually stopped contributing...
> The issues from 1987 to the end of 1992 are among the best sports analysis I've ever seen
Yes, looking back at it I am amazing how much of my worldview was shaped by Howard's AJ. He could have worked as an author or editor for an actual commercial publication; that's how good he was. Howard was only 53 when he sold the AJ to Eric but since he and Sally never had children perhaps they just lived on her salary as a nurse and his teaching pension until he passed @75. It's your blog but I think a thorough lookback at Howard's AJ would be illuminating