When Dave Kingman Proved Bill James Wrong

The controversy you never knew existed

When Dave Kingman Proved Bill James Wrong

I came across this gem in the summary of the 1978 Bill James Baseball Abstract:

As others have commented recently, I think that the strikeout / walk ratio for young players is more indicative of the way pitchers pitched to them than anything else. My guess is that Kingman had a hard time hitting breaking pitches, and that pitchers probably fed him a steady diet of them as time went on.

Kingman, of course, had a pretty bizarre 1977 season, playing for no fewer than 4 different teams. Dave put up 26 home runs in 481 plate appearances that year. That total is actually a little bit more impressive when you consider that he played in both Shea Stadium and Yankee Stadium, two of the more extreme pitcher’s parks in baseball at the time.

Kingman, by the way, became the first (and, to my knowledge, the only) player to hit a home run while playing in 4 different divisions in the same year. The Yankees were in the American League East; the Mets in the National League East; the California Angels were in the American League West; and the San Diego Padres were in the National League West. I’m hoping he got some good frequent flier miles out of all of that.

Anyway, the part where Bill James was dead wrong was his claim that Kingman couldn’t hit 50 home runs anywhere. Sure, Dave never quite got to 50 in his career — but he was as close as you can get:

48 home runs with the Cubs in 1979 was impressive, especially when you consider that Kingman only played in 145 games. Give him that extra two weeks of playing time, and he’d hit 50 easily.

And, yeah, it turns out that home run hitters tend to hit home runs in home run friendly ballparks. Kingman, however, also managed to lead the league in home runs in Shea Stadium in 1982, which is pretty impressive in its own right.

Dave never quite learned the strike zone, however. Striking out a lot isn’t really that bad when you’re putting up a slugging percentage of .500 or more, but you really don’t want to see guys routinely striking out 3 times for every walk.

But, all in all, this is an example of Bill James simply getting it wrong.