2 Comments
User's avatar
Randy Steinman's avatar

I love Clay's idea. For the last year or so, I have used a pitch-count formula I saw on the APBA Baseball Facebook page:

It is 3.3 pitches per PA + 1.5 for each Strikeout + 2.2 for each Walk.

And it works pretty well. In my current GTOP tournament, I limit each starter.. he cannot face a new batter once he reaches 110 pitches. As a result, most starters have to come out by the 7th or 8th inning. It forces me to make strategic use of bullpens, which I really enjoy. Roughly one of every 25 starts still results in a 9-inning complete game.

But Clay's formula is much simpler. And I'm stunned at how accurate it appears to be.

Just for fun, I just grabbed a random pitcher for a quick test. Don Sutton of the 1988 Dodgers..

Real life:

375 BF

44 K's

30 Walks

1,337 Pitches

827 Strikes

Using Clay's formula:

1,347 Pitches

838 Strikes

My mind is officially blown.

Great job, Mr. Dreslough.

Expand full comment
Wyrd Smythe's avatar

Fascinating!

Expand full comment