Why Can't The Dodgers Win?

A Brief Analysis

Why Can’t The Dodgers Win?

Take a look at the current National League standings in my 1949 replay:

I don’t know about you, but the thing that stands out most to me is that awful Dodgers record. 6-9 after 15 games is just pitiful, and the -19 run margin has me worried about the rest of the season.

Now, it is early, I know, and it’s not like the Dodgers were playing stellar ball at this point in time in real life. Here’s what things looked like after May 3rd was complete in the real world:

From The Brooklyn Eagle, May 4, 1949, page 27

And yet I still can’t help but think that something must be going wrong with this club. Let’s take a closer look.

Weak Hitting

First, let’s take a quick look at the basic offensive statistics, 15 games in:

The Dodgers are underperforming.

The real life 1949 Dodgers hit with a .274 / .354 / .419 slash line, several points higher than their outlay so far.

The simulation Dodgers are hitting more home runs, though. The real life club managed 152 in 154 games. Our Dodgers have 19 already in 15, on pace to come close to 200 over the course of the season. I don’t think they can keep that pace up, though it will be interesting to see.

The Dodgers have also been poor in terms of pitch selection. In real life, they walked 638 times and struck out only 570. In the replay, they’re sitting at only 50 walks from 15 games played, far below their real life rate, and have 53 strikeouts already, which is much closer to the real life pace.

Jackie Robinson and Pee Wee Reese seem to be the only players so far with a good batting eye. When it comes to offense in general, I’ve got to hold my head in my hands when I think about how poorly Campanella, Reese, and Furillo have been hitting. Using Rackley in left field instead of Cal Abrams was probably a smart move, but it takes more than one player to make an offense.

Abysmal Pitching

But wait: it gets worse.

I know that we’re not supposed to talk about ERA, but I’m going to talk about it anyway. That 5.08 team ERA is simply abysmal.

The Dodgers had a 3.80 ERA in real life in 1949, good enough for second in the league. They gave up only 651 runs, also second in the league. Meanwhile, they’ve already given up 82 runs in this replay, on pace to give up well over 800 if this continues.

Yes, I know that Don Newcombe is coming in the middle of May. I eagerly await his arrival. But I’m worried that this team is going to be 10 games below .500 by the time he shows up in Brooklyn.

By the way, despite my personal aversion to going to the bullpen, the Dodgers are well behind their real life complete game pace. Dodger pitchers threw 62 complete games in 1949, out of 154 games started (okay, technically 156 - remember that Baseball Reference counts incomplete games as well). In my replay, Brooklyn has only managed 3 complete games in 15 starts, which is nowhere near that real life pace.

No matter where I look, all I see are problems.

All Time Great?

Now, the thing that disturbs me the most about this is that the 1949 Dodgers are generally considered one of the best teams of all time.

In fact, if we’re going by that Neyer and Epstein book, the Dodgers have the 28th best Domination Index score of the 20th century:

Page 377

You’ll note that this is the second highest Domination Index score for all 20th century Dodger teams (I haven’t looked at the 21st century yet, and nobody seems to care about the 19th century for some reason). It’s also the highest score for all 20th century Brooklyn teams, beating out the 1953 Dodgers (the team most people naturally think of as the best of that Dodger run) and the 1955 Dodgers (the only one that actually won the World Series).

I’ll be blunt with you. I don’t think they’re going to repeat that feat in my replay.

I just don’t see how it’s going to happen. They need more than just Newcombe. They need the offense to wake up. They need Preacher Roe to stop giving up so many runs. They need Palica to throw strikes, Banta and Minner to stop giving up so many hits, and Erskine to actually stay in the game long enough to make a difference.

That hasn’t been happening yet. Things might change, I suppose. But it’s going to be one dramatic turnaround if they make it happen from here.